Thursday, December 06, 2012

TS BOPHA (PABLO) Update #033


for Thursday, 06 December 2012 [7:12 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 07 Dec 2012

Bopha (Pablo) downgraded into a Tropical Storm while moving slowly over the West Philippine Sea...expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday.

Residents and visitors along Palawan, Vietnam and Western Luzon should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 397 km northwest of El Nido, Palawan or 560 km southwest of Metro Manila...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 13 km/hr..

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers from the center. Bopha remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Tropical Storm Bopha is estimated to be exteme (400 mm).


Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to move slowly northwest for the next 48 hours...with a turn to the west and south through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to remain over the West Philippine Sea through the next 3 days and may move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning.

Bopha will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler dry air from the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) within the next 2 to 3 days.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Moving slowly across the West Philippine Sea...continues to weaken...about 551 km west of Lubang Island [6PM DEC 07: 13.9N 115.1E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Still losing strength as it moves very slowly across the West Philippine Sea, exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 613 km west of Subic Bay [6PM DEC 08: 14.8N 114.6E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to drift very slowly to the south...just barely a Tropical Storm...about 665 km west of Subic Bay [6PM DEC 09: 14.9N 114.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Philippine Sea). Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (110-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu December 06, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Center: 12.6º N Lat 116.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 397 km (NW) from El Nido, Palawan
Distance 2: 402 km (NW) from San Vicente, Palawan
Distance 3: 429 km (WNW) from Coron, Palawan
Distance 4: 443 km (WSW) from Lubang Island
Distance 5: 560 km (SW) from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 13 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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