WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 029
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012
Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) now moving away from Northern Palawan. Its core has passed over Northern Palawan this morning...bringing strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges across the towns of Taytay, Roxas, San Vicente, and El Nido.
Residents and visitors along Palawan should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located near the western shores of San Vicente and El Nido, Palawan...about 47 km northwest of San Vicente, Palawan or 94 km southwest of El Nido, Palawan...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 150 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (420 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Bopha is expected to resume moving west-northwest for the next 24 hours with little change in its forward speed. Around 36 to 72 hours, its track will turn to the northwest and slow down. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to move farther away from Northern Palawan...and will be over the West Philippine Sea this afternoon until Saturday as it is predicted to slow down or remain almost stationary.
Bopha will slightly re-intensify during the next one to two days, as the system moves over the warm temperatures of the West Philippine Sea. This typphoon will start to dissipate due to the surge of cool and dry northeasterly winds.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY NOON: Moving farther away from Northern Palawan towards the West Philippine Sea...re-intensifies...about 321 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan [12PM DEC 06: 11.8N 116.8E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Continues to regain wind speed as it slows down while over the West Philippine Sea...about 516 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [12PM DEC 07: 12.7N 115.5E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Just drifting very slowly over the West Philippine Sea...starts to weaken...about 580 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [12PM DEC 08: 13.2N 115.0E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea)...moving away from Northern Palawan. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over Northern Palawan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Central Palawan, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, and the Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western Visayas, Mindoro and Southern Palawan. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 420 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Palawan and the Calamian Group of Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Visayas, Mindoro, Batangas and the rest of Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed December 05, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Center: 10.8º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 47 km (NW) from San Vicente, Palawan
Distance 2: 55 km (W) from Taytay, Palawan
Distance 3: 65 km (NW) from Roxas, Palawan
Distance 4: 94 km (SW) from El Nido, Palawan
Distance 5: 127 km (NNE) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 6: 187 km (SSW) from Coron, Palawan
Distance 7: 197 km (WSW) from Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.
Distance 8: 219 km (W) from Cuyo Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph
Towards: Northern Palawan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [420 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
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