Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #027


for Tuesday, 04 December 2012 [7:54 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) now making landfall over Southern Negros...or in the vicinity of Dumaguete City. Stormy Conditions will continue to persists across much of the Visayas and Northwestern Mindanao.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over land...about 2 km south of Dumaguete City or 129 km south-southwest of Metro Cebu...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 33 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Negros and the Sulu Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (330 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving west-northwest for the next 12 hours with little change in its forward speed. After 12 hours, its track will turn to the northwest...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to traverse the southern part of Negros early tonight and will move across the Sulu Sea early Wednesday morning. The typhoon should approach Northern Palawan, passing just to the south of Amanpulo, Pamalican Island before noon Wednesday, and traverse the northern tip of Palawan late Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, Bopha shall slow down while over the West Philippine Sea.

Bopha will maintain its strength during the next one to two days, as the system moves over the warm temperatures of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Entering the West Philippine Sea...moving away from Northern Palawan...about 56 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan [6PM DEC 05: 11.5N 119.2E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Moving into the West Philippine Sea...slows down...about 376 km west-southwest of Coron, Calamian Group [6PM DEC 06: 13.1N 116.8E @ 165kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly while over the West Philippine Sea...moving northwest slowly, away from the Philippines...about 546 km west-southwest of Metro Manila [6PM DEC 07: 13.8N 116.0E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over Southern Negros. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Southern Negros and Siquijor. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Rest of Negros, Cebu, Bohol, Zamboanga Del Norte, Guimaras and Camiguin Islands.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas including Masbate and Ticao Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Negros and Panay Islands, Bohol and Cebu. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue December 04, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 9.3º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 2 km (S) from Dumaguete City
Distance 2: 64 km (SE) from Tagbilaran City
Distance 3: 78 km (N) from Dipolog City
Distance 4: 95 km (SE) from Kabankalan City
Distance 5: 95 km (SSW) from Carcar City
Distance 6: 129 km (SSW) from Metro Cebu
Distance 7: 150 km (SSE) from Bacolod City
Distance 8: 164 km (SSE) from Guimaras Island
Distance 9: 173 km (SSE) from Iloilo City
Distance 10: 368 km (SE) from Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 33 kph
Towards: Southern Negros and Sulu Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [330 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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