Sunday, December 02, 2012

Super Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #019


for Sunday, 02 December 2012 [1:18 PM PhT]


Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 02 Dec 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 02 Dec 2012

Super Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) has maintained its strength as it moves dangerously closer to the Republic of Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or early tonight and pass over or very close to Koror. Typhoon Conditions with winds of more than 120 km/hr will reach Palau around sunset today.

Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon Mike (Ruping) which passed over Palau in November 1990. Please take all precautionary measures on this extremely dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia and the Philippines (particularly the Republic of Palau, Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region) should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the small eye of Super Typhoon Bopha was located over Western Micronesia...about 228 km east-southeast of Koror, Palau or 1,223 km east-southeast of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte...currently moving faster west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of the Republic of Palau.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers. Bopha is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (310 mm).


Super Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours with some fluctuations in its forward speed...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass over or very close to Palau Islands early this evening between 5:00-6:00 pm Manila Time...and could be over or very close to Surigao City and Siargao Islands on Tuesday afternoon around sunset. Bopha may start to traverse Central Visayas Tuesday evening, passing in between Bohol and Southern Leyte...and cross Central Cebu after midnight on Wednesday...over Negros Occidental very near Cadiz City after sunrise on Wednesday...and along Iloilo-Capiz Boundary around Wednesday noon.

Bopha may start to slowly weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours...and could be downgraded from Super Typhoon status due to lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures along the Philippine Sea. Further weakening is anticipated once the system moves across the Visayas due to the effects of land interaction.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY NOON: Starts to weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea, away from the Republic of Palau towards Surigao Provinces...about 585 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [12PM DEC 03: 7.8N 131.6E @ 230kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it bears down the coast of Surigao Del Norte and Siargao Islands...about 129 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [12PM DEC 04: 9.4N 126.6E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it traverses Central Visayas with a couple of landfalls...over Northern Panay...about 46 km south of Roxas City, Capiz [12PM DEC 05: 11.2N 122.7E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

PINHOLE EYE - over water (Western Micronesia)...but will reach the southern shores of Palau early tonight. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...but the northern part of the eyewall will reach the Republic of Palau before sunset today.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Western Micronesia including the Republic of Palau. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Yap and Ulithi Islands and other smaller islands of Western and Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the Republic of Palau. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Eastern Mindanao and the Marianas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sun December 02, 2012
Class/Name: STY Bopha (26W)
Location of Eye: 6.4º N Lat 136.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 155 km (E) from the PAR
Distance 2: 228 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 1,127 km (ESE) from Mati City
Distance 4: 1,132 km (ESE) from Bislig City
Distance 5: 1,223 km (ESE) from Siargao Island
Distance 6: 1,258 km (ESE) from Surigao City
Distance 7: 1,365 km (SE) from Tacloban City
Distance 8: 1,339 km (SE) from Borongan City
Distance 9: 1,440 km (ESE) from Metro Cebu
Distance 10: 1,583 km (SE) from Legazpi City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Republic of Palau
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [310 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 52 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on STY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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