WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 032
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) moving slowly across the West Philippine Sea...maintains its strength. This system is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening.
Residents and visitors along Palawan, Vietnam and Western Luzon should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 321 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan or 359 km west of Coron, Palawan...currently moving northwest with a slow forward speed of 7 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Bopha is expected to move slowly west-northwest to northwestward for the next 24 hours with a rapid decrease in its forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to continue moving slowly across the West Philippine Sea until Sunday as it is predicted to slow down or remain almost stationary.
Bopha will slightly re-intensify during the next one to two days, as the system encounters some warm temperatures off the West Philippine Sea. However, this typhoon may dissipate after 2 days due to the surge of cool and dry air, brought about by the northeast monsoon.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY NOON: Moving slowly farther away from Northern Palawan towards the West Philippine Sea...re-intensifies slightly...about 525 km east-southeast of Lubang Island [12PM DEC 07: 13.1N 115.4E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Maintain its strength as it slows down further while over the West Philippine Sea...weakens slightly...about 631 km west-southwest of Subic Bay [12PM DEC 08: 14.0N 114.5E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Just drifting very slowly or quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea...weakens to a Tropical Storm...about 667 km west-southwest of Subic Bay [12PM DEC 09: 14.6N 114.1E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu December 06, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Center: 12.2º N Lat 116.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 321 km (WNW) from El Nido, Palawan
Distance 2: 323 km (NW) from San Vicente, Palawan
Distance 3: 359 km (W) from Coron, Palawan
Distance 4: 340 km (NW) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 5: 323 km (NW) from Taytay, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 07 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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