WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 030
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) continues to move away from Northern Palawan...circulation becoming more compact and struggling to re-organize while over the West Philippine Sea. The system is forecast to leave the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday. Rainbands still affecting Northern Palawan.
Residents and visitors along Palawan should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 pm today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 183 km west-northwest of San Vicente, Palawan or 197 km west of El Nido, Palawan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 20 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 150 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (460 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn northwestward for the next 24 hours with a rapid decrease in its forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to continue moving farther away from Northern Palawan...and will be over the West Philippine Sea until Saturday as it is predicted to slow down or remain almost stationary.
Bopha will slightly re-intensify during the next one to two days, as the system encounters some warm temperatures off the West Philippine Sea. However, this typhoon may dissipate after 3 days due to the surge of cool and dry air, brought about by the northeast monsoon.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY EVENING: Moving farther away from Northern Palawan towards the West Philippine Sea...re-intensifies...about 450 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [6PM DEC 06: 12.6N 116.1E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Continues to regain wind speed as it slows down while over the West Philippine Sea...about 561 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [6PM DEC 07: 13.3N 115.2E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Just drifting very slowly or quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea...starts to weaken...about 584 km west of Lubang Island [6PM DEC 08: 13.6N 114.8E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern and Central Palawan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Occidental Mindoro, Southern Palawan, Pamalican Islands, and the Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 460 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Palawan and the Calamian Group of Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Visayas, Mindoro, Batangas and the rest of Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed December 05, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Center: 11.4º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 183 km (WNW) from San Vicente, Palawan
Distance 2: 187 km (WNW) from Taytay, Palawan
Distance 3: 196 km (WNW) from Roxas, Palawan
Distance 4: 197 km (W) from El Nido, Palawan
Distance 5: 208 km (WNW) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 6: 259 km (WSW) from Coron, Palawan
Distance 7: 305 km (W) from Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.
Distance 8: 343 km (WNW) from Cuyo Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [460 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
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