WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (QUINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Tuesday 25 Dec 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 25 Dec 2012
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea, east of Leyte has strengthened into Tropical Depression 27W (Quinta)...now threatens Bicol and Visayas Region. Its rainbands now spreading across Samar, Leyte, Surigao Provinces including Dinagat and Siargao Islands.
27W (Quinta) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring moderate to strong winds with "on-and-off" rains across the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon today.
Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and the Visayas should closely monitor the development of 27W (Quinta).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 am today, the center of Tropical Depression 27W (Quinta) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 425 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 456 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Samar-Leyte-Masbate Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. 27W (Quinta) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 400 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TD 27W (Quinta) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Depression 27W (Quinta) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a turn to the west through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 27W (Quinta) is expected to make landfall over Southern Samar, just south of Borongan City later tonight and cross Samar Island...and could be over the southern shores of Masbate by Wednesday morning. By early Wednesday evening, 27W (Quinta) may cross the Southern part of Mindoro, passing very close to San Jose, Occidental Mindoro...and should be over the West Philippine Sea on Thursday and Friday.
27W (Quinta) will continue slightly intensify throughout the forecast period...and 27W (Quinta) could become a Tropical Storm later today.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Over the southern coast of Masbate...about 35 km south-southwest of Masbate City, Masbate [6AM DEC 26: 12.0N 123.5E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Slightly intensified as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 164 km southwest of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 27: 12.9N 119.0E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Turns westward while over the West Philippine Sea...still intensifying...about 439 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 28: 13.1N 116.2E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Samar, Leyte, Dinagat and Siargao Islands, and Surigao Provinces. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 27W (Quinta).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue December 25, 2012
Class/Name: TD 27W (Quinta)
Location of Center: 10.4º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km (ENE) from Surigao City
Distance 2: 425 km (SE) from Borongan City
Distance 3: 456 km (ESE) from Tacloban City
Distance 4: 470 km (E) from Maasin City
Distance 5: 496 km (ESE) from Ormoc City
Distance 6: 526 km (SE) from Calbayog City
Distance 7: 543 km (SE) from Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 8: 569 km (E) from Metro Cebu
Distance 9: 626 km (SE) from Sorsogon City
Distance 10: 636 km (SE) from Masbate City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Samar-Leyte-Masbate Area
CPA [ETA] to Southern Samar: Tonight [10-11PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 400 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 27W (QUINTA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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