Monday, September 28, 2009

Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) - Update #018

 


for Monday, 28 September 2009 [2:57 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured last Saturday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..


KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr

TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • KETSANA (ONDOY) becomes a Typhoon as it nears the coast of Vietnam.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall reach the coast of Vietnam tomorrow morning. Landfall is likely along Central Vietnam near the City of Hue tomorrow late afternoon. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.

    + Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands is now spreading across Central & Southern Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam beginning tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
    Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 112.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
    Distance 3: 475 km (257 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
    Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
    Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) West of Dagupan City, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Central Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Sep 28
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00 GMT Mon Sep 28
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Sep 28
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.9N 111.1E / 130-160 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / W @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.1N 109.4E / 140-165 KPH (Typhooh-Cat 1) / W @ 15 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.3N 106.6E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.8N 112.8E.
    *TYPHOON KETSANA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AND IS ON THE VERGE OF
    DEVELOPING A RAGGED EYE AS EVIDENCED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
    AND A 272306Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
    CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE TIGHTER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTHWEST
    OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BY
    PGTW, KNES AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...
    (
    more)

    >> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed treeName contributed by: Lao PDR.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEM)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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