Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TS MELOR (20W) - Update #001

 


for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [10:54 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Now issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MELOR (20W).


MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001

8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • The Tropical Depression which developed yesterday afternoon has strengthened into Tropical Storm MELOR (20W)...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Saturday Oct 3...and shall pass in between Guam and Saipan or over the small island of Rota on Saturday evening. Its projected wind speeds is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.

    + Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to organize with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
    Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 155.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,210 km (655 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,160 km (627 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    General Direction: Laos
    Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00 GMT Wed Sep 30
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 30
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 12.4N 153.9E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.5N 152.2E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.1N 149.1E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 13.8N 146.7E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 11.7N 155.8E.
    *TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
    CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    ALSO, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
    BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION,
    THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
    INCREASING PGTW AND KNES DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5
    TO 3.0 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE
    IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE
    NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
    TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
    WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE BUILDING CONVECTION AS IT
    GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...
    (
    more)

    >> MELOR, meaning: Jasmine FlowerName contributed by: Malaysia.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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    RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MELOR (20W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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