Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PARMA (Pre-PEPENG) slows down & intensify... [Update #005]

for Tuesday, 29 September 2009 [6:58 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue September 29 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) slightly turns Westward while intensifying to the SE of Yap Island.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to resume its Westward movement w/in the next 06 hours, before heading WNW-ward. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon on Thursday, Oct 01. PARMA shall pass about 750 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC on Friday, Oct 02...and shall be about 500 km East of Batanes Islands on Saturday, Oct 03. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on all quadrants except the northeastern portion...its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands and Palau Island. Passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 100 mm near the center of this storm.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) getting slightly organized as it heads WNW towards Guam. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) now over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area a few hours ago. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(3) Tropical Depression 20W (UNNAMED) newly-formed north of Chuuk Island or East of TS 18W...accelerating WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 8.1º N Lat 138.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km (90 nm) SSE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 470 km (253 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,460 km (788 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,800 km (972 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 8.2N 137.0E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.1N 135.3E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.1N 132.0E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.6N 130.0E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat1) / NNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 7.8N 138.9E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
PERSISTED, WITH CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED WITH SOME INDICATION
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH TS 18W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE, WITH THE EVENTUAL CAPTURE OF TS 18W AROUND TAU 96...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS PARMA (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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