Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MUJIGAE (MARING) nears Hainan Island... [Update #006]

for Thursday, 10 September 2009 [7:17 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 10 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MUJIGAE (MARING).

MUJIGAE (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE [MARING/14W/0913]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 10 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (MARING) now tracking Westward, closer to Hainan Island.

*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong & Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of MUJIGAE.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MUJIGAE is expected to continue tracking Westward for the next 24 hours, making landfall and crossing Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system traversing the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow evening as a weakened Tropical Depression. It shall make its final landfall off the coast of Northern Vietnam on Saturday evening, Sep 12 and dissipate over Northern Vietnam on Sunday Sep 13.

+ Effects: MUJIGAE's compact circulation still out at sea but its western rainbands affecting Hainan and Western Guangdong. Deteriorating tropical storm conditions can be expected tonight until tomorrow as the system moves ashore. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along MUJIGAE's rainbands.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) remains off the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 11.3N lon 135.8E...or about 1,135 km East of Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving Westward slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 72 hours. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu September 10 2009
Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 113.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (155 nm) East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) SSW of Macau
Distance 3: 350 km (190 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 360 km (195 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 780 km (427 nm) WNW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Hainan Island
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
HKO TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Thu Sep 10
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Thu Sep 10
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Sep 10
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 111.7E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 17 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.4N 109.7E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.6N 106.5E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 104.4E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance) / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.1N 113.7E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME VISIBLE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 14W HAS CONTINUED TO EXTEND
WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW OVER TD 14W, WHICH HAS CAUSED THE INCREASE IN VWS.
MUJIGAE IS STILL TRACKING BRISKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH TOWARDS
HAINAN ISLAND. VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND, TD 14W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BEFORE CROSSING BACK INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS MUJIGAE CROSSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND THE STR
WEAKENS. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BETWEEN
TAU 60 AND TAU 72....(more)

>> MUJIGAE, meaning: Rainbow. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MUJIGAE (MARING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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