Sunday, September 06, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #013

 

 


for Sunday, 06 September 2009 [2:52 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 06 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) accelerating Northward w/ no change in strength.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan, Iwo To & Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to continue moving NNE across the warm Western Pacific Ocean, NW of Iwo To for the next 24 hours. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming a minimal Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow evening and shall pass between south of Honshu, Japan and north Chichi Jima Island on Tuesday Sep 08. DUJUAN shall transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday (Sep 09-10) while over the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean - moving on a NE track.

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the Northeasternmost Philippine Sea with no land areas affected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 45 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, WESTERN & CENTRAL VISAYAS, NORTHERN PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 06 2009
    Location of Center: 25.4º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 535 km (288 nm) WSW of Chichi Jima
    Distance 2: 790 km (427 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 1,525 km (825 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun Sep 06
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Sun Sep 06
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 06
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 26.0N 136.4E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 13 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 27.4N 136.8E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 15 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 30.2N 139.8E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 37 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER: 34.6N 147.5E / 100-130 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 57 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.4N 135.8E.
    ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
    EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
    CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST 06
    HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC HAS DIMINISHED, HOWEVER, THE
    SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES  (PGTW, KNES AND RJTD). ANIMATED
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES  IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD
    OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING  OVER WESTERN JAPAN. A WEAK UPPER-
    LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE  SYSTEM OVER OKINAWA AND
    APPEARS TO BE BOOSTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW  DESPITE SOME PRESSURE
    ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
    POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL
    AS A SERIES OF HIGH RESOLUTION  MICROWAVE IMAGES (051246Z TRMM,
    051702Z AMSR-E, 052108Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ AND 052231Z SSMIS). TS 13W IS
    CLEARLY MOVING ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY...
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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