Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TS MELOR (20W) - Update #002

 


for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [7:56 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MELOR (20W).


MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) still gaining intensity as it moves in the direction of Marianas.

    *Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Friday Oct 2...and shall pass north of Guam or very close to Saipan & Rota Islands on Saturday afternoon Oct 3. Its projected wind speeds near the EYE during its passage over the Marianas is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Philippine Sea.

    + Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to improve with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of the storm. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
    Location of Center: 12.7º N Lat 154.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,055 km (570 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) ESE of Saipan, CNMI
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    General Direction: Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Sep 30
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06 GMT Wed Sep 30
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Sep 30
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.2N 153.0E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.2N 151.3E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.8N 148.2E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 14.5N 145.6E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.6N 154.7E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
    CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
    NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION
    CONTINUES TO BUILD, HOWEVER STILL REMAINS SPORADIC IN THE CURVED
    BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
    HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND WITH INCREASED
    ORGANIZATION AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO
    INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
    (
    more)

    >> MELOR, meaning: Jasmine FlowerName contributed by: Malaysia.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MELOR (20W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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