Saturday, September 05, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #011

 


for Saturday, 05 September 2009 [6:41 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 05 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...intensifying and accelerating NE-ward towards the Southern Coast of Japan.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan, Iwo To & Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to turn NNE across the warm Western Pacific Ocean, SW of Iwo To for the next 24 hours. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system becoming a minimal Category 1 Typhoon early Monday morning Sep 7. It shall pass to the south of Honshu, Japan on Tuesday afternoon Sep 08 on a fast NE or ENE track...becoming Extratropical on Wednesday or Thursday (Sep 09-10).

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the Northern Philippine Sea with no land areas affected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 45 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHWESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 05 2009
    Location of Center: 21.9º N Lat 134.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 730 km (395 nm) WSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 865 km (467 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 1,355 km (730 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Sep 05
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Sat Sep 05
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Sep 05
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 23.5N 134.6E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 19 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 25.4N 135.2E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / N @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 28.3N 136.0E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NE @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 31.1N 139.2E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NE @ 44 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.2N 133.6E.
    ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION FOR
    TS 13W OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
    THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  ADDITIONALLY THERE HAS BEEN
    AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGING TO THE EAST BEGINS TO TURN THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD. THERE
    HAS BEEN NO SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST REASONING, WITH AN
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96, AND BEING A COM-
    PLETELY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120...
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 21.3N 133.8E / NE @ 19 kph / 95 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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