Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD ONDOY (17W) now passing north of Catanduanes... [Update #009]

for Saturday, 26 September 2009 [12:16 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 24 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD ONDOY (17W).

ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

ONDOY (17W) approaching Tropical Storm threshold...heavy rainbands now covering and affecting the whole of Luzon...more intense across the Bicol Region and Polillo Island.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue tracking WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. It shall pass more or less 150 km. north of Bicol Region early this morning. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system making landfall just south of Baler, Aurora early Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon passing through Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Sunday afternoon. It shall reach Tropical Storm status on Monday Sep 28 and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. ONDOY shall make landfall anew over Central Vietnam, very near Hue City on Wednesday morning, Sep 30.

+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation has been improving as vertical wind shear surrounding the depression relaxes...its thick rainband convection is now spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila...becoming more stormy across Polillo and Northern Bicol. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 65 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it approaches Polillo Island and Northern Quezon-Aurora today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MINDORO, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) North of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 125 km (68 nm) NNE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 185 km (100 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 195 km (105 nm) NNE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 200 km (108 nm) NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 335 km (180 nm) SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 365 km (197 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 60 kph (33 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 80 kph (43 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Polillo-Northern Quezon Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 AM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA VISCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, QUEZON, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, BURIAS ISLAND, & POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BATAAN, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, MARINDUQUE, AND ALBAY.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 AM (00 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 124.6E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 20 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.4N 122.4E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 22 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.7N 117.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 114.0E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.5N 126.6E.
*AS EXPECTED MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN
INVERTED, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HAVE HAMPERED
AGGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF TD 17W (SEVENTEEN).
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAD BEEN BUFFERING HIGHER VWS HAS
SINCE SHIFTED NORTH, ALLOWING FOR STRONG EASTERLIES TO FILTER IN
OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ALSO
BECOME MORE AND MORE EXPOSED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND IS NOW
LOCATED MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION THAT
IS NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PI. NONETHELESS, CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF
THE LLCC AND PERHAPS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND/OR STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A 250951Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. THE SAME
QUIKSCAT IMAGE JUSTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS THE 30
KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FEW AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS FROM LUZON,
IN AND AROUND THE MANILA REGION, REPORT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1005
MB, WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (14 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 123.7E / WNW @ 15 kph / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD ONDOY(17W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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