Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY)

for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [6:44 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured yesterday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) slowed down as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...still gaining intensity as it remain large.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West to WNW, reaching Typhoon status early tomorrow morning. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system making landfall over Central Vietnam on Tuesday night, Sep 29. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos-Thailand on Wednesday Sep 30th.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has grown further in size..now with a diameter of 1,390-km. Its western outer rainbands is now spreading into the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands has become Tropical Depression 18W. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) continues to organize as it moves Westward south of Guam...currently located near lat 10.1N lon 145.6E...or about 390 km SSE of Guam or 2,190 km. East of Visayas, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 28 kph.

This system is also expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. Watch for more information on this disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 114.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km (308 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 625 km (338 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 695 km (375 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 735 km (395 nm) South of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 765 km (413 nm) ESE of Da Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam-Hainan Is. Area
Size (in Diameter): 1,390 km (750 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 113.8E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 112.1E / 120-150 KPH (Typhooh-Cat 1) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 108.4E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.5N 104.7E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance/LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.2N 115.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 270344Z TRMM IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH WRAPPING
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES DUE TO A PASSING
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD EXHAUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES A WESTWARD COURSE UNDER EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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