Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) passing over Alamagan Island...[Update #009]

for Tuesday, 15 September 2009 [3:10 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Tue 15 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Dangerous Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) turns to the NW...now moving across Alamagan Island in the Northern Marianas. Inner rainbands affecting Saipan.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Alamagan and Agrihan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue on its NW track...turning into a dangerous Super Typhoon today. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the typhoon maintaining its NW movement reaching Category 5 strength w/ peak winds of 260 kph on Thursday, Sep 17. CHOI-WAN shall start recurving to the North to NNE on Friday Sep 19 as it passes to the west of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) and Chichi Jima Island.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) is now passing very close to the island of Alamagan...with its inner rainbands spreading across Saipan and Agrihan Islands. Moderate to heavy rains with winds of more than 100 kph w/ passing heavy squalls can be expected within the inner bands. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 150 kph can be felt along the path of CHOI-WAN, particularly over Alamagan Island & nearby islets. Outer rainbands of this typhoon will continue to affect the rest of the Northern & Southern Marianas. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Marianas. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Tue September 15 2009
Location of Eye: 17.6º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) North of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) NNE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,135 km (613 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,460 km (1,328 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Alamagan-Agrihan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 1 PM PST Tue Sep 15
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Tue Sep 15
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Sep 15
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 18.2N 145.4E / 240-295 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 144.0E / 250-305 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 21.9N 141.3E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NNW @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 24.9N 140.4E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NNE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 17.1N 146.7E.
^TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
PATTERN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 141944Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A VERY
WELL DEFINED EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. TY 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WAS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW MECHANISMS
ALOFT...(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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