Monday, September 28, 2009

TD 18W (UNNAMED) - Update #003

 


for Monday, 28 September 2009 [3:28 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TD 18W (UNNAMED).


18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) has tracked more to the SW and still consolidating east of TD 19W (Pre-PEPENG).

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to start tracking WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to the south of Guam by Wednesday morning Sep 30...reaching Typhoon status on Saturday morning, Oct 3rd while over the Philippine Sea. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening, Oct 2nd. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

    + Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
    Location of Center: 9.1º N Lat 155.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,230 km (665 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,235 km (667 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
    Distance 3: 1,875 km (1,012 nm) East of Yap, FSM
    Distance 4: 2,215 km (1,195 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 5: 3,255 km (1,758 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: SW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Mon Sep 28
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00 GMT Mon Sep 28
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 9.7N 153.9E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 22 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 10.4N 151.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 12.3N 145.8E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.1N 141.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.5N 155.7E.
    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) DISPLAYED ERRATIC
    MOVEMENT AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
    PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION,
    MOSTLY WEST OF THE LLCC, HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED DESPITE THE LACK OF
    CONSOLIDATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 18W IS SOUTHWEST
    OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
    THE POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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