Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD ONDOY (17W) moving closer to Northern Bicol...Widespread rains affecting Bicol Region...[Update #007]

for Friday, 25 September 2009 [12:00 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 24 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD ONDOY (17W).

ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression ONDOY (17W) continues to slow down as it moves closer to the northern coast of Bicol Region. Rainbands affecting the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and portions of Eastern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Central Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 150 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning or in the afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Monday morning, Sep 28.

+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues trying to organize despite moderate vertical wind shear, its rain clouds is displaced 100-200 km. from the low-level center...western and southwestern rainbands continues to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces today. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Mid-Level Center: 14.3º N Lat 127.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (182 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 410 km (220 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 450 km (245 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 475 km (255 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 670 km (362 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: AURORA, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & CATANDUANES.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 14.3N 127.3E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 15 KPH

8 AM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 14.6N 125.6E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 121.5E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 15 KPH
8 AM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 118.0E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 128.7E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
AND IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242119Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH SEVERAL 25 TO 30 KNOT UN-
FLAGGED WIND OBSERVATIONS IN A BROAD REGION SURROUNDING THE LLCC.
ALSO, A 242101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH
AND MUCH WEAKER CLOUD BANDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 17W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC EXTENDING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CHINA. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS
PROVIDING A BROAD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAKER EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 14.9N 126.0E / WNW @ 11 kph / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD ONDOY(17W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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