Friday, September 04, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) moving away from RP... [Update #008]

 


for Friday, 04 September 2009 [6:19 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 04 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) has accelerated ENE-ward and slightly intensified...no longer a threat to the Philippines.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to continue accelerating towards the NE or NNE across the warm Northern Philippine Sea for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon Sep 08 and likewise becoming a minimal Typhoon. It shall be approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday Sep 09.

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the Northern Philippine Sea with no land areas affected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 60 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, PARTS OF THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has weakened near the coast of Vietnam but may redevelop within the next 1 to 2 days...currently located near lat 14.6N lon 109.5E...or about 215 km SSE of Da Nang, Vietnam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving SSE slowly.


    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 48 to 72 hours. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri September 04 2009
    Location of Center: 18.6º N Lat 130.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 905 km (490 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 915 km (495 nm) East of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 925 km (500 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: ENE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Fri Sep 04
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Fri Sep 04
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Sep 04
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now lowered: CAGAYAN & ISABELA. 

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 20.0N 131.5E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 20 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 21.8N 132.8E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 25.3N 134.1E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon) / NNE @ 13 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 27.9N 134.8E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon) / NE @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.5N 129.9E.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP,
    FLARING CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
    SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENT
    POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
    RJTD. TS DUJUAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
    STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTWARD BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
    TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS
    THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD AND BY TAU 72 TS 13W SHOULD
    START TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK MORE EAST-
    NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 04 SEPTEMBER: 18.7N 129.9E / NE @ 13 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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