Friday, September 11, 2009

TS MUJIGAE (MARING) - Update #008

 


for Friday, 11 September 2009 [1:16 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 10 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MUJIGAE (MARING).


MUJIGAE (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE [MARING/14W/0913]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 11 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (MARING) has quickly crossed Hainan this morning...now off the NW Coast of the island...winds and rains now spreading across Northern Vietnam and parts of SW Guangdong.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & SW Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of MUJIGAE.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MUJIGAE is expected to traverse the Gulf of Tonkin this afternoon thru the evening. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall off the coast of Northern Vietnam tomorrow afternoon Sep 12 and dissipate over Northern Vietnam on Sunday Sep 13.

    + Effects: MUJIGAE's rain circulation has left Hainan Island as it continues to spread across the Gulf of Tonkin and Northern Vietnam. Tropical storm conditions can be expected throughout the day along the affected areas. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along MUJIGAE's rainbands.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) continues to consolidate off the Philippine Sea, east of Bicol Region...currently located near lat 13.0 lon 132.2E...or about 855 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...forecast to move WNW @ 15 kph towards Eastern Luzon.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 11 2009
    Location of Center: 19.8º N Lat 109.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 60 km (33 nm) NW of Danzhou, Hainan
    Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) NE of Dongfang, Hainan
    Distance 3: 130 km (70 nm) WSW of Haikou, Hainan
    Distance 4: 220 km (120 nm) SW of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 5: 370 km (200 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
    General Direction: Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
    HKO TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri Sep 11
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Fri Sep 11
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Sep 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, &  48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 108.5E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 13 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 20.0N 107.1E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 11 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 104.8E / 30-45 KPH (Tropical Disturbance) / --- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.7N 110.3E.
    *OBSERVATIONS FROM MEILAN, HAINAN (ZJHK), INDICATE TD 14W HAS
    COME ASHORE OVER NORTHERN HAINAN AS A 30 KNOT SYSTEM. FURTHER
    PROBING OF THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS FROM MEILAN OVER THE PAST 06 TO
    12 HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PASSED TO
    THE WEST OF THIS OBSERVATION SITE (110.5E), WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
    RISES AND A 180 DEGREE WIND SHIFT, BOTH BEGINNING AROUND 10/2000Z.
    AS OF 11/0100Z, THE SLP HAS RISEN TO 1002 MB, WHICH CURRENTLY
    SUPPORTS A 30 KNOT SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
    (AS CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION TO
    THE WEST, WITH THE WESTERNMOST, OUTER CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
    AFFECT THE VIETNAMESE COASTLINE..
    (
    more)

    >> MUJIGAE, meaning: RainbowName contributed by: DPR Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MUJIGAE (MARING)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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