Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS ONDOY (17W) approaching Central Luzon... [Update #010]

for Saturday, 26 September 2009 [5:37 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS ONDOY (17W).

ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

ONDOY (17W) has reached Tropical Storm status...now passing north of Camarines Provinces as it moves closer to Polillo Island, Northern Quezon and Southern Aurora...heavy rainbands still affecting the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue tracking West to WNW for the next 24 hours, passing just north of Polillo Island later this morning making landfall just south of Baler, Aurora later this afternoon or evening. ONDOY shall weaken into a Tropical Depression upon crossing Central Luzon, passing over the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales later tonight until early tomorrow morning. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system reorganizing over the South China Sea by tomorrow morning. It shall regain Tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. ONDOY shall be moving Westward across the South China Sea, becoming a strong tropical storm (95 kph) and make its final landfall over Central Vietnam, very near Hue City on Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Complete dissipation of ONDOY is forecast on Thursday morning Oct 01 while crossing Laos.

+ Effects: ONDOY's strong circulation is now over the island of Luzon...Thick and heavy rainbands continues to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 85 kph across the provinces of Central, Northern and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. Improving weather conditions can be expected across the Bicol Region later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces, Northern Quezon and Aurora. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MINDORO, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 15.0º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km (85 nm) NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) North of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 145 km (78 nm) NE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 175 km (95 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 210 km (113 nm) North of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 260 km (140 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 7: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 315 km (170 nm) ESE of Cabanatuan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
T2K TrackMap #10 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 1800Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: LA UNION, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAMARINES NORTE, AND RIZAL.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ILOCOS SUR, BATAAN, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, MARINDUQUE, MINDORO PROVINCES, LUBANG IS., SOUTHERN QUEZON, CAMARINES SUR, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., AND METRO MANILA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 122.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.7N 120.9E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.9N 115.8E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 111.5E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.9N 125.0E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED AND LATEST MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERIES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODING THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM . THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 251322Z HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS DEPICTING
MULTIPLE 35-KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON PGTW'S 251730Z FIX. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASS OF LUZON AFTER TAU 12, THEN
REINTENSIFY INTO A TS WHEN IT EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU
36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 NEAR HUE,
VIETNAM BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER,
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS HAINAN...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 122.5E / WNW @ 19 kph / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD ONDOY(17W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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