Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CHOI-WAN (15W) nears Typhoon strength... [Update #005]

for Sunday, 13 September 2009 [6:49 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 13 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm CHOI-WAN (15W) fast becoming a Typhoon...still heading West...endangers Saipan and Pagan Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Saipan and Pagan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN's forecast scenario remains unchanged...expected to continue moving on a westerly track and intensify further into a Category 1 Typhoon w/in in the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN turning slightly WNW, passing in between Pagan and Saipan Islands tomorrow evening...becoming a Category 2 Typhoon w/ winds of 165 kph on Wednesday, Sep 16. CHOI-WAN shall continue gaining strength reaching Category 3 (185 kph) status as it approaches the northeastern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday Sep 18.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's outer rainbands continues to move closer to Northern Marianas...expected to reach the island chain tonight. Rains, winds w/ passing squalls & thunderstorms can be expected over the commonwealth islands as the rainbands approaches. Typhoon conditions is forecast across the northern part of commonwealth particularly Saipan and Pagan tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 350 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 13 2009
Location of Center: 15.8º N Lat 148.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km (185 nm) ENE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,475 km (797 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,850 km (1,540 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Saipan-Pagan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Sun Sep 13
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sun Sep 13
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Sep 13
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 147.8E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 146.5E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 17.7N 144.5E / 150-185 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 19.2N 141.7E / 165-205 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 2) / WNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.7N 149.3E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
OVERHEAD. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 130530Z HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130410Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO JAPAN WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND
ENABLE TS 15W TO RESUME ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120,
HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG TYPHOON.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36, THEN DEVIATES TO
THE RIGHT, FAVORING ECMWF AND JGSM...(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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