Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS 18W (UNNAMED) approaching Guam... [Update #007]

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TS 18W (UNNAMED) approaching Guam... [Update #007]

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [6:50 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TS 18W (UNNAMED).

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

18W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves quickly towards the Southern Mariana Islands including Guam.

*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system throughout the forecast outlook...this due to TS PARMA (located to the WSW) which is expected to inhibit further development. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam this afternoon. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Friday evening (Oct 2) as a downgraded Depression and shall be absorbed into the circulation of TS PARMA, which is a much stronger system.

+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall across the Marianas today.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 12.9º N Lat 147.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (132 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 290 km (155 nm) SSE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 13.6N 144.7E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 28 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.6N 141.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.7N 135.5E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.3N 129.8E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.6N 147.5E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED MASS OF
CONVECTION WITH VERY LITTLE STRUCTURE. A 291514Z TRMM PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY CURVED LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH, AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL
CYCLONES TS 19W AND TS 20W. THE SYSTEM'S PLACEMENT NEAR TWO STORMS
HAS DISRUPTED ITS INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PATTERNS AND HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. AS IT CLOSES THE DISTANCE TO TS 19W,
LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THE INFLOW AND OUTFLOW WILL BECOME
FURTHER DISRUPTED AND THE SYSTEM WILL START TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CAPTURED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TS 19W. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK AS 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD
AS IT FEELS THE EFFECT OF WEAK BINARY INTERACTION BEFORE BEING
CAPTURED BY 19W, TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AND DISSIPATING ONCE IT
IS IN THE WIND FIELD FOR 19W...(more)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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