Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY)

for Monday, 28 September 2009 [6:28 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured last Saturday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) slowed down further as it nears Typhoon strength.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West to WNW, reaching Typhoon status today. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system making landfall over Central Vietnam tomorrow afternoon near the City of Hue. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos-Thailand area on Thursday Oct 1st.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands continues to spread into Central Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands has become Tropical Depression 18W. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) growing in size as it nears Tropical Depression status...now passing south of Guam...currently located near lat 9.6N lon 145.1E...or about 425 km South of Guam or 2,150 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph...moving West @ 19 kph.

This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone today. Watch for more information on this disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 113.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 730 km (395 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) WSW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,390 km (750 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 111.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / W @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.1N 109.9E / 140-165 KPH (Typhooh-Cat 1) / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.3N 107.0E / 95-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 16.8N 104.3E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance/LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.8N 113.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TS KETSANA STILL HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INDUCED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE STORM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE FIRMLY ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TO A MINMUM TYPHOON BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HUE. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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