Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 19W (Pre-PEPENG) heading towards Yap-Ulithi Islands... [Update #002]

for Monday, 28 September 2009 [7:09 PM PST]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

19W (PRE-PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression 19W (PRE-PEPENG) heading west towards Yap and Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap and Ulithi should closely monitor the progress of 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 19W is expected to continue moving due West for the next 2 days, reaching Tropical Storm status tomorrow afternoon and shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday morning, Sep 30. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning abruptly WNW to NW-ward, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon while about 500 km. to the east of Camarines Sur on Friday afternoon Oct 02. It shall be about 300 km to the east of Cagayan Province in Northern Luzon on Saturday afternoon, October 3. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: 19W's circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands west and northth of the center...its developing western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands. Passing rains and gale-force winds may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along 19W's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of this depression.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WSW-ward near the Hall Islands. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) nearing Category 2 strength as it moves closer to the coast of Vietnam...continues to show its ragged EYE. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.5º N Lat 143.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 560 km (303 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 900 km (485 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,940 km (1,048 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 2,225 km (1,200 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Yap Island-Philippine Sea Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.2N 141.4E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 22 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.3N 139.0E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.3N 134.1E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.1N 130.9E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.3N 144.1E.
*THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TD 19W IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT, ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND ITS LIMITED HORIZONTAL
EXTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON VORTEX TRACKERS FROM WBAR,
EGRR, UKMO AND THE EXTENDED MODEL FIELDS FROM ECMWF. THE FORECAST IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY PROXIMITY TO TD 18W, WITH SEVERAL NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
TD 19W BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TD
18W AND TD 19W IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL
RESOLUTION, VICE AN ACTUAL INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER (NO INTERACTION BETWEEN TDS 18W AND 19W). THUS, THE TRACK FOR
TD 19W IS TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 48. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO REACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH AFTER TAU 72. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE ARE
LIMITED NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM,
INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...(more)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm