for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [7:26 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 27 2009):
Now issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on the newly-formed TD 18W (UNNAMED).
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 (INITIAL)
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The strong but small tropical disturbance (LPA-98W) west of the Marshall Islands has strengthened into Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED)...accelerating west in the direction of Southern Marianas.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to continue moving on a fast West to WNW track for the next 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam on Tuesday afternoon...reaching Typhoon status Wednesday afternoon. 18W, as a Typhoon, shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Thursday afternoon, October 1st on a WNW track towards Extreme Northern Luzon. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation, although small, has started to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any Western Pacific Islands as of this time.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 10.4º N Lat 157.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,370 km (740 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,335 km (720 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 2,070 km (1,118 nm) ENE of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,405 km (1,298 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,450 km (1,858 nm) East of Visayas, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 10.3N 154.9E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 31 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 27 2009):
Now issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on the newly-formed TD 18W (UNNAMED).
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 (INITIAL)
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to continue moving on a fast West to WNW track for the next 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam on Tuesday afternoon...
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 10.4º N Lat 157.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,370 km (740 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,335 km (720 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 2,070 km (1,118 nm) ENE of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,405 km (1,298 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,450 km (1,858 nm) East of Visayas, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 10.3N 154.9E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 31 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 11.1N 151.6E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 30 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 13.0N 145.6E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 14.4N 140.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 13.0N 145.6E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 14.4N 140.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 20 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 10.4N 157.5E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. DUE TO THE STILL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS GUAM, WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FIELDS
FROM ECMWF (THE MOST RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL THUS FAR THIS SEASON)
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, A VORTEX TRACKER
BASED ON ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE NOGAPS VORTEX
TRACKER...(more)
____________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
>
> http://www.maybagyo
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