Monday, September 28, 2009

TD 18W (UNNAMED) - Update #001

 


for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [7:26 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 27 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on the newly-formed TD 18W (UNNAMED).


18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 (INITIAL)

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • The strong but small tropical disturbance (LPA-98W) west of the Marshall Islands has strengthened into Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED)...accelerating west in the direction of Southern Marianas.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to continue moving on a fast West to WNW track for the next 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam on Tuesday afternoon...reaching Typhoon status Wednesday afternoon. 18W, as a Typhoon, shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Thursday afternoon, October 1st on a WNW track towards Extreme Northern Luzon. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

    + Effects: 18W's circulation, although small, has started to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any Western Pacific Islands as of this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
    Location of Center: 10.4º N Lat 157.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,370 km (740 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,335 km (720 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
    Distance 3: 2,070 km (1,118 nm) ENE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 4: 2,405 km (1,298 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 5: 3,450 km (1,858 nm) East of Visayas, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Sun Sep 27
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06 GMT Sun Sep 27
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 10.3N 154.9E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 31 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 11.1N 151.6E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 30 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 13.0N 145.6E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 14.4N 140.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 10.4N 157.5E.
    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
    NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5
    TO 2.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
    UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
    THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
    AXIS. DUE TO THE STILL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AVAILABLE
    NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
    GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS GUAM, WITH STEADY
    INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FIELDS
    FROM ECMWF (THE MOST RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL THUS FAR THIS SEASON)
    INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM.
    HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, A VORTEX TRACKER
    BASED ON ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
    THEREFORE THIS FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE NOGAPS VORTEX
    TRACKER...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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