Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) passing west of Chichi Jima... [Update #020]

for Saturday, 19 September 2009 [6:34 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 19 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #028
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) still undergoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle...accelerating NNE and is now passing West of Chichi Jima.

*Residents and visitors along the SE Coast of Honshu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), wherein the old (inner) eyewall begins to dissipate and a new (outer) eyewall develops and starts to contract, thus replacing the old eyewall with this new one. This powerful typhoon is expected to accelerate further to the NE, passing north of Chichi Jima this afternoon. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN speeding up towards the ENE, weakening into Category 1 on Monday Sep 21. It shall become an Extratropical Cyclone on Tuesday Sep 22 as it moves across the upper portion of the NW Pacific Ocean.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & double eyewalls) remain over warm open seas of the NW Pacific...its eastern inner bands continues to affect the island group of Chichi Jima & Bonin...while the southern outer bands spreads across Iwo To. Tropical Storm to Typhoon force winds w/ moderate to heavy rains is expected to be felt Chichi Jima and Bonin Islands today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat September 19 2009
Location of Eye: 27.2º N Lat 139.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (125 nm) West of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 305 km (165 nm) NNW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 945 km (510 nm) South of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 4: 1,175 km (635 nm) WNW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Sat Sep 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Fri Sep 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Sep 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 29.0N 141.3E / 205-250 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 33 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 31.7N 144.0E / 185-230 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 44 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 37.7N 155.3E / 130-160 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / ENE @ 60 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 42.8N 171.2E / 75-95 KPH (Extratropical Cyclone) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 26.4N 139.5E.
^TY 15W HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. THE MATURE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE, AS EVIDENCED IN THE 181630Z AMSR-E PASS THAT SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SOLID OUTER EYEWALL AND ONLY A WEAK CRESCENT
OF AN INNER EYEWALL. THE REMNANT INNER EYEWALL OF TY 15W HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY, WHILE THE LARGE (120 NM) OUTER EYEWALL
WILL CONSTRICT TO AROUND 30-40 NM IN DIAMETER THROUGH TAU 12 TO 24.
AFTER TAU 36, TY 15W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE TY 15W TO
WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) THROUGH TAU 48
AND COMPLETING THE ET PROCESS BY TAU 72. TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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