Sunday, September 06, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #012

 

 


for Sunday, 06 September 2009 [8:31 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 06 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...heading towards the Southern Coast of Japan.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan, Iwo To & Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to continue moving NNE across the warm Western Pacific Ocean, SW of Iwo To for the next 24 hours. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming a minimal Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow afternoon and shall pass in between the coast of Honshu and Chichi Jima Island. DUJUAN shall transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday (Sep 09-10) while over the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean.

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the Northeasternmost Philippine Sea with no land areas affected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 45 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, VISAYAS, NORTHERN PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun September 06 2009
    Location of Center: 24.0º N Lat 135.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 585 km (315 nm) WSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 1,450 km (783 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km (650 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun Sep 06
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Sat Sep 05
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Sep 06
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 25.2N 136.3E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 15 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 26.7N 136.7E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 29.2N 138.3E / 130-160 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NE @ 30 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER: 32.8N 144.4E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NE @ 54 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.4N 135.5E.
    ^ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051702Z AMSR-E IMAGE
    INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY WITH A STRONGER
    WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE CON-
    VECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. THEREFORE,
    THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION
    BASED ALSO ON A 051246Z TRMM  IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD BUT WILL LIKELY
    INCREASE ON THE NEXT WARNING BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE SIG-
    NATURE AND STRENGTHENED WARM CORE EVIDENT ON THE 051157Z AMSU
    CROSS-SECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED RADIAL
    OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER JAPAN. TS 13W IS STILL
    EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THEN RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
    ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
    WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN (THROUGH TAU 48), THE MODELS
    SUPPORT THIS TRACK WITH A TIGHT CLUSTER OF MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS.
    BOTH NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE EXHIBITED AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWESTWARD
    BIAS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS--THIS HAS YET TO VERIFY AND THE UPPER AIR
    SOUNDING AT CHICHI-JIMA INDICATES DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
    SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REASONING. RELIABLE INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 65-70 KNOTS AT
    TAU 48-72 BASED ON IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
    EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND
    COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72-96....
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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