Friday, September 11, 2009

TS MUJIGAE (MARING) - Update #007

 


for Friday, 11 September 2009 [7:00 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 10 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MUJIGAE (MARING).


MUJIGAE (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE [MARING/14W/0913]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 11 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (MARING) now off the eastern coast of Hainan...winds and rains spreading across the island.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam, Western Guangdong & Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of MUJIGAE.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MUJIGAE is expected to weaken into a depression upon crossing Hainan this morning. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system traversing the Gulf of Tonkin tonight. It shall make its final landfall off the coast of Northern Vietnam tomorrow afternoon Sep 12 and dissipate over Northern Vietnam on Sunday Sep 13.

    + Effects: MUJIGAE's compact circulation is covering the whole of Hainan, Gulf of Tonkin and Northern Vietnam. Tropical storm conditions can be expected throughout the day. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along MUJIGAE's rainbands.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) slowly consolidating off the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 13.2N lon 132.7E...or about 975 km East of Legazpi City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving WNW slowly.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri September 11 2009
    Location of Center: 19.5º N Lat 110.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) NE of Qionghai, Hainan
    Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) SE of Haikou, Hainan
    Distance 3: 135 km (73 nm) East of Danzhou, Hainan
    Distance 4: 205 km (110 nm) SSE of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 5: 555 km (300 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    General Direction: Hainan-Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    HKO TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri Sep 11
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Fri Sep 11
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Sep 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.6N 109.4E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 15 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.7N 107.8E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.3N 105.4E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance) / WNW @ 07 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.9N 103.8E / 30-45 KPH (Tropical Disturbance) / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.5N 111.4E.
    *RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKED UNDER
    THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. EASTERLY FLOW
    ALOFT IS SHEARING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC OVER
    HAINAN. THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEILAN, HAINAN
    (ZJHK), LOCATED LESS THAN ONE DEGREE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
    LLCC, SUPPORT A 30 KNOT SYSTEM, WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REPORTED AT
    999 MB. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
    WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL HAINAN, CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN
    AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM, THEN TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN VIETNAM AS
    A WEAK DEPRESSION. LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 36.
    DEEP EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER LEVELS, CONFIRMED
    BY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG SOUTHERN CHINA, WILL CONTINUE TO
    FACILITATE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
    (
    more)

    >> MUJIGAE, meaning: RainbowName contributed by: DPR Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MUJIGAE (MARING)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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