Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY) causing massive floods across Metro Manila & parts of Luzon... [Update #012]

for Saturday, 26 September 2009 [6:19 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Massive flooding occuring across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden has recorded a new record rainfall of 345 mm. in just 6 hours. Almost 24 hours of rainfall now around 500 mm.

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) now over Nueva Ecija...passing very close to the south of Cabanatuan City...Moderate to heavy rainfall still affecting parts of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Central & Western Luzon including Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Zambales Mountain Range later tonight...passing over Tarlac and Zambales provinces. It shall accelerate further into the South China Sea early tomorrow morning and will further gain strength. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength over the South China Sea as it churns closer to Hainan Island-Northern Vietnam area on Tuesday and Wednesday (Sep 29-30). KETSANA shall move into the Gulf of Tonkin Wednesday afternoon and make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, SE of Hanoi City on Wednesday evening. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.

+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation along with heavy rainbands continues to bring intense rainfall with winds across Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western-Southern Luzon...Meanwhile, the storm's scattered rainbands continues to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds of up to 65 kph across other parts of Luzon. Improving weather conditions has started over the Bicol Region today until tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 121.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km (5 nm) South of Cabanatuan City
Distance 2: 50 km (27 nm) NE of Clark Air Field
Distance 3: 80 km (43 nm) SW of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 90 km (48 nm) North of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Dagupan City
Distance 6: 100 km (55 nm) NE of Subic Bay/Olongapo
Distance 7: 120 km (65 nm) SSE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 310 km (167 nm) NW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Tarlac-Zambales Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, REST OF QUEZON, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., MARINDUQUE, AND BATAAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 118.7E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 20 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 116.5E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 113.0E / 100-130 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 17.0N 110.0E / 120-130 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.4N 121.8E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATING SOME NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EQUATORWARD FLOW SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. ALSO, DUE TO LAND INFLUENCE THE LLCC IS BECOMING HARDER
TO LOCATE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES ARE LESS HELPFUL. TS 17W IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST OF LUZON AND WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELAXES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIXES
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE 260153Z ASCAT PASS
WHICH DEPICTS 30-KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: xx.xN xxx.xE / xxx @ xx kph / 85 kph --- website offline.

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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