Monday, September 07, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #014

 

 


for Monday, 07 September 2009 [6:39 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 07 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) slows down and lost a little bit of strength...tracking northward towards the Southern Coast of Japan.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to begin recurving to the NE within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system accelerating ENE-ward passing south of Honshu, Japan and north Chichi Jima Island tomorrow afternoon Sep 08. DUJUAN shall transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday (Sep 09 or 10) while moving across the NW Pacific Ocean.

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the NW Pacific Ocean with its northernmost outer bands begenning to touch the coastal areas of Southern Japan.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, WESTERN & CENTRAL VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 07 2009
    Location of Center: 27.2º N Lat 136.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 500 km (270 nm) WNW of Chichi Jima
    Distance 2: 795 km (430 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 1,605 km (867 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 991 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Sep 07
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Sun Sep 06
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Sep 07
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 28.1N 136.3E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 15 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 29.4N 137.5E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 26 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER: 32.9N 144.5E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 51 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 38.6N 156.4E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / .. @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 26.9N 135.9E.
    ^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED LOSS OF
    CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND A BROADENED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
    ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND A 061138Z ASCAT
    IMAGE INDICATING A LLCC AS STRONG AS 40 KNOTS. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING
    FROM WAJIMA, JAPAN, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT
    STRONG WESTERLIES HAVE BEGUN TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-
    CENTRAL HONSHU. THESE WESTERLIES, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET
    MAXIMUM AND BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM
    NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL
    ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 WHILE ACCELERATING
    NORTHEASTWARD. DUJUAN IS NOT PROJECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS A
    TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A LESS-
    SATURATED AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
    VARIABLES SHOULD RETARD THE FORMATION OF (CENTRALIZED) DEEP
    CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM
    WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THEN REMAIN A STRONG
    EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE....
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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