Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PARMA (Pre-PEPENG) turning WNW slowly in between Yap & Palau Islands... [Update #006]

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [6:21 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue September 29 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) has jogged to the WNW after passing to the south of Yap Island...still intensifying.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW'ly across the Philippine Sea as it attains Typhoon intensity (Category 1) early tomorrow morning. PARMA shall continues to intensify while moving across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. It shall be about 735 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC on early Saturday morning, Oct 3. The typhoon shall start to turn WNW on Sunday or Monday (Oct 4-5) in the direction of Taiwan...and shall be about 340 km ENE of Batanes Islands on early Monday morning, Oct 5. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...its inner (rain) bands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands. Tropical Storm conditions can be expected across the area...Western outer (feeder) bands affecting Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 75 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of this storm.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, is expected to pass near Guam today. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon. Click here to view the last T2K advisory on this system.

(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) churning WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not affecting any major Pacific Islands.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 8.4º N Lat 137.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) SW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,285 km (695 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,625 km (875 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.0N 136.1E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 10.2N 134.4E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.2N 131.4E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.2N 129.5E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat1) / NNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 8.2N 137.7E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO
EVIDENT IS INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH. A 291617Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS
A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE SYSTEM INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER THAT EXHIBITS AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE PARTIALLY SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT SLOWING
AND ERRATIC MOTION ARE ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS
18W, LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE NORTHWARD
TURN IN 19W IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS TS 18W CLOSES THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS AND IS EVENTUALLY CAPTURED BY THE MORE DOMINANT
TS 19W. AFTER TAU 72 THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CAUSING
19W TO TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND KNES (45-55 KNOTS), AND A STEADY
INTENSITY FORECAST INCREASE IS BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE INCREASED OUTFLOW THAT IS DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTH...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS PARMA (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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