Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY) gaining strength over the South China Sea... [Update #014]

for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [7:46 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured yesterday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulations of 16.7 inches (424 mm.) in just 12 hours, breaking the previous record of 13.2 inches (335 mm) which fell during a 24-hour period in June 1967.

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) gaining more strength and is now in the middle of the South China Sea...moving away from the Philippines...now threatens Vietnam & Hainan Island.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR later this afternoon. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Tuesday, Sep 29 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, just to the NW of Hue City on Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.

+ Effects: KETSANA's strong circulation has become more broader and is now covering the whole South China Sea. Its eastern outer rainbandshas already left Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the western outer rainbands of KETSANA is expected to reach the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island later today. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 10.8 lon 159.7E...or about 1,645 km ESE of Guam or 3,710 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph...forecast to move Westward @ 22 kph towards Southern Marianas.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) gaining cloud convection as it moves Westward towards Southern Marianas...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 149.1E...or about 600 km SE of Guam or 2,585 km. East of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph.

These systems are expected to become Tropical Cyclones within the next 1 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km (160 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 425 km (230 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #13 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, BATAAN, & LUBANG ISLAND.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 115.8E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.0N 114.0E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.6N 110.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 17.5N 107.0E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.7N 118.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STORM HAS DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE RECONSOLI-
DATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INTENSIFIED AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T2.5), RJTD (T2.5), AND KNES
(T3.0), AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND FROM ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TS 17W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CHINA AND
INTENSIFY UP TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF HUE,
VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 117.0E / WNW @ 24 kph / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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