Bushman's Typhoon Blog: CHOI-WAN (15W) almost a Super Typhoon...spares Saipan...[Update #008]

for Tuesday, 15 September 2009 [7:04 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 15 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Powerful Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) approaching Super Typhoon strength...spares Saipan on a direct hit...turns northwestward.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Alamagan and Agrihan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to track NW and intensify further into Super Typhoon today passing in between the islands of Agrihan and Alamagan this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN maintaining its NW movement reaching Category 5 strength w/ winds of 260 kph on Thursday, Sep 17. CHOI-WAN shall start recurving to the North to NNE late Friday or Saturday Sep 19 as it passes to the west of Chichi Jima Island.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's outer rainbands now spreading across the whole of Marianas, Guam-Rota, and portions of eastern Caroline Islands...its inner rainbands approaching Alamagan and Agrihan Islands. Its core (eye and eyewall) expected to pass very close to Alamagan and Agrihan Islands later today. Moderate to heavy rains with winds of 60-100 kph w/ passing heavy squalls can be expected within the inner bands...turning later into Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 150 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Marianas. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue September 15 2009
Location of Eye: 16.7º N Lat 146.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) NE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,255 km (678 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,585 km (1,395 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Alamagan-Agrihan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 7 AM PST Tue Sep 15
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Mon Sep 14
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Tue Sep 15
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 17.6N 146.0E / 240-295 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 18.7N 144.7E / 250-305 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 141.9E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / NNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 23.4N 140.4E / 260-315 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 5) / N @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 16.6N 147.1E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
NORTHEAST THAT IS PROVIDING A DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST IN
ADDITION TO BROAD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL UPPER-
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING THE BROAD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, ALONG WITH
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMING ESTABLISHED INTO THE TUTT, HAVE LED TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, A TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 06 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH SST
STARTS TO DECREASE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
72 IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH....(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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