Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY) to exit PAR this PM... [Update #015]

for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [12:26 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured yesterday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015 {[FINAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The flood-bearing Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...continues to intensify while churning across the warm South China Sea. Monsoon rains continues to dump "on and off" rains across Metro Manila and parts of the Philippines.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR this afternoon. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday, Sep 28 as it approaches the coast of Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Central Vietnam, over or very close to the City of Hue on Tuesday night, Sep 29. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Wednesday Sep 30th.

+ Effects: KETSANA's strong circulation remains large and continues to cover most of South China Sea. Its eastern outer rainbands has already left Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the western outer rainbands of KETSANA is expected to reach the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island this afternoon thru the evening. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 450 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to organize and intensify...currently located near lat 10.2 lon 158.1E...or about 1,490 km ESE of Guam or 3,570 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving WSW @ 26 kph towards Southern Marianas-Carolines Area.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) still gaining pulsating cloud convection as it moves Westward towards the Southern Mariana Islands...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 147.3E...or about 465 km SE of Guam or 2,390 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 26 kph.

These systems are expected to become Tropical Cyclones within the next 1 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 505 km (272 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 600 km (323 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 715 km (385 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 795 km (430 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 6: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam-Hainan Is. Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: NOW LOWERED.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.7N 114.1E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 112.4E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 109.1E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.9N 105.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 116.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STORM HAS DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE RECONSOLI-
DATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INTENSIFIED AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T2.5), RJTD (T2.5), AND KNES
(T3.0), AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND FROM ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TS 17W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CHINA AND
INTENSIFY UP TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF HUE,
VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 117.0E / WNW @ 24 kph / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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