Thursday, September 17, 2009

Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) has started to lose strength...[Update #015]

 


for Thursday, 17 September 2009 [11:51 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY CHOI-WAN (15W).


CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 17 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #021
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) starts to weaken...now moving on a NNW track...likely to threaten the Iwo To-Chichi Jima Island Group.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue losing strength while moving NNW to Northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving NNE to NE, passing about 130 km to the west of Iwo To tomorrow aftermoon Sep 18 and about 130 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall maintain its waning phase as it accelerates further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical on Monday Sep 21.

    + Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas...with its outer bands approaching Iwo To...and across Chichi Jima later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
     

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu September 17 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.7º N Lat 140.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) SSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 560 km (302 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 720 km (390 nm) SSW of Chichi Jima
    Distance 4: 1,915 km (1,035 nm) East of Batanes, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    250 kph (135 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
    Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 ft (12.8 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Thu Sep 17
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Thu Sep 17
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Sep 17
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 22.0N 140.1E / 240-295 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / N @ 19 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 24.0N 139.9E / 230-280 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / N @ 24 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 29.5N 142.1E / 195-240 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 39 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 36.5N 147.4E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / NE @ 41 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.3N 141.0E.
    ^RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN) HAS REMAINED A
    FULLY DEVELOPED SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DESPITE SOME
    EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE RECENT
    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T6.5), RJTD (T6.5) AND KNES (T6.5) ALL
    REFLECT THE EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION. STY 15W HAS STARTED TO
    TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATING
    THAT IT HAS STARTED ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS...
    (
    more)

    >> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful CloudName contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:




    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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