Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Typhoon CIMARON (PAENG) stalls over the South China Sea...[Update #009]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #017
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON CIMARON (PAENG) SLOWS DOWN ABRUPTLY OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to re-intensify
over the South China Sea and move on a West to WSW track
in the direction of Vietnam. The 3 to 5-day (Nov 3-5)
long-range forecast shows CIMARON weakening but making
its 2nd landfall along Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical
Storm by Saturday morning, Nov 4...and dissipating over
Laos Sunday Nov 5
. 

+ EFFECTS: The system's outer bands continues to affect
La Union, Zambales, Western Pangasinan & Ilocos Provin-
ces...however improving weather conditions can be expec-
ted later today as the typhoon slowly moves away. The
rest of Luzon is now free from the storm's circulation.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 2 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-
rous battering waves can be expected along the western
coast of Luzon today
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 31 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.1º N...LONGITUDE 117.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 290 KM (157 NM) WSW OF VIGAN CITY
DISTANCE 2: 315 KM (170 NM) WNW OF BAGUIO CITY
DISTANCE 3: 305 KM (165 NM) NW OF DAGUPAN CITY
DISTANCE 4: 460 KM (248 NM) NW OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 03 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST TUE OCTOBER 31
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - LA UNION, PANGASINAN & ZAMBALES.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.3N 116.9E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 NOV: 17.6N 115.4E / 215-260 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 NOV: 17.3N 112.7E / 165-205 KPH / W @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.0N 118.0E.
^TY Cimaron has slowed over the last six hours as it has
reached its closest Point of approach to a weakness in the
subtropical ridge (str) located over Taiwan. TY Cimaron
will track westward under the influence of the section of
the str currently located over Hainan Island. This steering
str will shift steadily westward through 36 hours to a new
position over northern laos. From 48 hours, TY Cimaron will
track west-southwestward along the southeastern periphery
of the str..
.
(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: 
Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.7N 117.5E / WSW @ 13 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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