Wednesday, October 04, 2006

TS BEBINCA (NENENG) starts to recurve away from RP...[Update #006]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA [NENENG/19W/0616] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 04 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 04 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (NENENG) HAS STARTED ACCELERATING
NORTHWARD...LESSENING THE THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES...
AIMING FOR SOUTHERN JAPAN.

*PAGASA 10-min sustained winds remained at 85-km/hr...All
interests in Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should
closely monitor the progress of this storm.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BEBINCA is expected to continue moving
Northward for the next 24 hours, with a more NE'ly track
by 48 hours with forecast wind speed of 100 km/hr. The 3
to 5-day long-range forecasts (Oct 7-9) shows the system
slowing down and becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it
heads in the direction of Southern Japan.
 

+ EFFECTS: BEBINCA's large circulation continues to affect
Eastern & Southern Coastline of the Philippines...The
Southwestern Outer Bands of this storm are currently sprea-
ding across the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte,
Visayas & Eastern Luzon. This could bring mostly cloudy
skies with light to moderate rainfall & winds of not
more than 50 km/hr today
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Another Tropical Storm named
RUMBIA has formed over the open Western Pacific...cu-
rrently not a threat to any Pacific Islands except for
Marcus Island...its center was located about 1,320 km
NE of Hagatna, Guam (21.8 N Lat 153.6 E Lon)...with
10-min sustained winds of 75 km/hr...moving NNW at
13 km/hr towards SE Japan. 

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 130.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 885 KM (478 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES
DISTANCE 2: 890 KM (480 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY
DISTANCE 3: 880 KM (475 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 4: 1,040 KM (560 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,055 KM (570 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM HKT WED OCTOBER 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#01 - NOW LOWERED...
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCT: 19.2N 130.1E / 75-95 KPH / NORTH @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCT: 20.5N 130.4E / 85-100 KPH / NORTH @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCT: 22.2N 131.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.8N 130.1E.
^TS BEBINCA HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH HAS CREATED A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE TRACK OF BEBINCA
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE MOTION OF THE PARENT MONSOON
DEPRESSION. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL CON-
TINUE TO TAKE A STEADY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THUS, THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS.
..
.(more info)

>> BEBINCA {pronounced: be~bin~ca}, meaning: Milk Pudding. 
   
Name contributed by: Macau

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 16.7N 127.1E / NORTH @ 11 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS BEBINCA (NENENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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