Monday, October 30, 2006

CIMARON (PAENG) weakens..now over Northern Benguet...[Update #007]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 30 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 30 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #013
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
SUPER TYPHOON CIMARON (PAENG) WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE AFTER HITTING (LANDFALL) THE SIERRA MADRE MOUN-
TAINS JUST NORTH OF CASIGURAN, AURORA LAST NIGHT AROUND
9 PM (13 GMT) LAST NIGHT...NOW OVER THE CORDILLERA MOUN-
TAIN RANGES OR OFF THE NORTHERN PART OF BENGUET.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected return back to
the South China Sea this morning after crossing Northern
Benguet and Southern Ilocos Sur in just a few hours. The
2 to 4-day (Nov 1-4) long-range forecast shows CIMARON
over the South China Sea moving on a West to WSW path,
weakening and shall make its 2nd landfall along Vietnam
as a downgraded Tropical Storm by Friday evening, Nov 3
. 

+ EFFECTS: The system's main core (eye & Eyewall) is now
over Northern Benguet & currently moving towards Ilocos
Sur, with typhoon conditions being felt across the area.
The provinces of Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet,
Pangasinan - remains under the typhoon's inner bands
where strong winds and rains can be expected this early
morning. The rest of Luzon including Metro Manila conti-
nues to be affected by its outer bands Moderate winds with
light to sometimes heavy rainfall can be expected over
the affected areas under Cimaron's outer bands. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of more than 15 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves can be expected along the western coast of Luzon
today
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 30 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.9º N...LONGITUDE 120.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 50 KM (27 NM) NNE OF BAGUIO CITY
DISTANCE 2: 90 KM (48 NM) SSE OF VIGAN CITY
DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) NNE OF DAGUPAN CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS SUR
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST MON OCTOBER 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NORTHERN AURORA, QUIRINO, SOU-
      THERN CAGAYAN, SOUTHERN APAYAO, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, 
      ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, BENGUET, PANGASINAN, NORTHERN 
      ZAMBALES, IFUGAO & KALINGA.
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, REST OF APAYAO, CALAYAN GROUP, NUEVA 
      ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, REST OF ZAMBALES, REST OF 
      CAGAYAN AND REST OF AURORA
.
#01
- BATANES GROUP, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO 
      ISLAND AND BATAAN.

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCT: 17.1N 119.2E / 175-215 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.3N 117.5E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 NOV: 17.2N 114.9E / 165-205 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.8N 121.3E.
^STY Cimaron is tracking westward along the southwestern
periphery of a section of the subtropical ridge located east
of Taiwan. Between 00 and 24 hours, STY Cimaron will pass
over the island of Luzon causing the system to slow and
weaken as it interacts with the terrain. As STY Cimaron
departs Luzon, another section of the subtropical ridge
located over northern Vietnam will become the primary
steering influence around 36 hours and begin steering
the system west-southwestward..
.
(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: 
Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Ifugao: Ongoing til 7AM today
+ Benguet-La Union: Ongoing til 10AM today
+ Ilocos Sur: Ongoing til 11AM today.


Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon.
It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found.
EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and
heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning
synopsis is issued.
Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this
for life or death decisions.

_______________________________________________________________________


PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.5N 121.2E / WEST @ 17 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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