Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 15 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 15 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
____________
THE LARGE EYE OF TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) NOW LEAVING
IWO JIMA AS ITS SOUTHERN EYEWALL MOVES IN.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND SOUTHERN JAPAN
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SOULIK.
IWO JIMA AS ITS SOUTHERN EYEWALL MOVES IN.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND SOUTHERN JAPAN
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SOULIK.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to began acce-
lerating Northerly to NNE'ly for the next 24 to 48
hours and weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm. The
large eye shall pass close to Bonin Island tomorrow
morning (Sunday, Oct 15). The 3-day long-range fore-
cast (Oct 17) shows SOULIK rapidly accelerating to-
wards the ENE and becoming an Extratropical Cyclone
by Tuesday, Oct 18. This forecast track of Soulik
clearly shows that no major islands will get affec-
ted by this system.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's large Eye is now leaving Iwo Jima.
The resumption of typhoon conditions will start any
moment now, with the arrival of very strong SW'ly to
Westerly winds in excess of 120 km/hr accompanied with
very heavy rainfall that could last for 6 hours. Mean-
while, Bonin Island continues to be under its inner
bands. Strong winds of not more than 100 km/hr with
moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected tonight
until tomorrow. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to
8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves will continue to prevail for
the next 12 hours along Iwo Jima and nearby islands.
+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: Westerly & South-
westerly windflow associated with the Monsoon Trough
(a.k.a. ITCZ) enhanced by SOULIK continues to bring
cloudy skies with rainshowers & thunderstorms across
the Marianas which now extends across the Southern
Philippines.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.2º N...LONGITUDE 141.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) NW OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,310 KM (707 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SAT OCTOBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCT: 26.2N 141.2E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCT: 28.7N 142.4E / 140-165 KPH / NNE @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.6N 150.6E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 45 KPH
DISTANCE 3: 2,015 KM (1,088 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SAT OCTOBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCT: 26.2N 141.2E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCT: 28.7N 142.4E / 140-165 KPH / NNE @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.6N 150.6E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 45 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 24.8N 140.9E.
^TY Soulik (21W) is currently located in a weak steering
environment between the subtropical ridge (str) to the
east and another str to the west. These competing steering
influences will keep TY 21w nearly quasi-stationary through
24 hours, when the str to the west weakens and the eastern
ridge becomes the dominant steering influence. As TY Soulik
moves north-northeastward and rounds the axis of the str, a
mid-latitude low pressure trough will approach from the west
and begin extratropical transition of the system around
48 hours...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
Offline Status: Servers under migration to a new location..services will resume
October 16 or 17 (Monday or Tuesday). Sorry for the inconvenience.
____________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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