Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TROPICAL STORM SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 12 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
____________
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF IWO JIMA...BAD WEATHER PREVAILING
OVER THE ISLAND.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA, RYUKYUS (OKINAWA) AND
SOUTHERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SOULIK.
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF IWO JIMA...BAD WEATHER PREVAILING
OVER THE ISLAND.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA, RYUKYUS (OKINAWA) AND
SOUTHERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SOULIK.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to turn Northward
very slowly for the next 2 days passing close to Iwo Jima
by Saturday afternoon (Oct 14) & becoming a 120-km/hr Ca-
tegory 1 Typhoon tonight or early tomorrow. The 3 to 5-day
long range forecast (Oct 15-17) shows SOULIK accelerating
towards NNE early next week. This new forecast outlook
suggests a decreasing threat to Southeastern Japan as
it shall remain over the open waters of the NW Pacific.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's northern outer bands will continue to
affect Iwo Jima and nearby islands tonight until tomorrow.
It is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall with
increasing NE to ENE'ly winds of not more than 60 km/hr.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's northern outer bands will continue to
affect Iwo Jima and nearby islands tonight until tomorrow.
It is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall with
increasing NE to ENE'ly winds of not more than 60 km/hr.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwesterly windflow en-
hanced by SOULIK continues to bring cloudy skies with
rainshowers & thunderstorms across the Marianas.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 12 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 141.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 200 KM (108 NM) SOUTH OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,395 KM (753 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST THU OCTOBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCT: 23.6N 140.9E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCT: 24.0N 140.6E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 03 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 25.0N 140.5E / 150-185 KPH / NORTH @ 05 KPH
DISTANCE 3: 2,010 KM (1,085 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST THU OCTOBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCT: 23.6N 140.9E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCT: 24.0N 140.6E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 03 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 25.0N 140.5E / 150-185 KPH / NORTH @ 05 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER POSITION: 22.8N 141.5E.
^TS SOULIK (21W) IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTH OF WAKE
ISLAND. THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL KEEP THE TRACK MORE NORTHWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS SOULIK
WILL SLOW THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AS
TS SOULIK MOVES INTO COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS
STR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE STR
TO THE EAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STR TO THE WEST, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PROPOGATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PA-
TTERN WILL ENHANCE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF TS SOULIK FROM
48 THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MADE A MAJOR
SHIFT IN TRACK, CALLING FOR A MORE RAPID RECURVATURE
SCENARIO...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
Offline Status: Servers under migration to a new location..services will resume
October 16 or 17 (Monday or Tuesday). Sorry for the inconvenience.
____________
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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