Thursday, October 12, 2006

Tropical Storm SOULIK (21W) - Update #007


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TROPICAL STORM SOULIK [21W/0618] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 12 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF IWO JIMA...BAD WEATHER PREVAILING
OVER THE ISLAND
.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA, RYUKYUS (OKINAWA) AND
SOUTHERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
SOULIK.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to turn Northward
very slowly for the next 2 days passing close to Iwo Jima
by Saturday afternoon (Oct 14) & becoming a 120-km/hr Ca-
tegory 1 Typhoon tonight or early tomorrow. The 3 to 5-day
long range forecast (Oct 15-17) shows SOULIK accelerating
towards NNE early next week. This new forecast outlook
suggests a decreasing threat to Southeastern Japan as
it shall remain over the open waters of the NW Pacific

+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's northern outer bands will continue to
affect Iwo Jima and nearby islands tonight until tomorrow.
It is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall with
increasing NE to ENE'ly winds of not more than 60 km/hr
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwesterly windflow en-
hanced by SOULIK continues to bring cloudy skies with
rainshowers & thunderstorms across the Marianas.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 12 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 141.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 200 KM (108 NM) SOUTH OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,395 KM (753 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 2,010 KM (1,085 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST THU OCTOBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCT: 23.6N 140.9E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCT: 24.0N 140.6E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 03 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 25.0N 140.5E / 150-185 KPH / NORTH @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER POSITION: 22.8N 141.5E.
^TS SOULIK (21W) IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTH OF WAKE
ISLAND. THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL KEEP THE TRACK MORE NORTHWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS SOULIK
WILL SLOW THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AS
TS SOULIK MOVES INTO COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS
STR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE STR
TO THE EAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STR TO THE WEST, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PROPOGATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PA-
TTERN WILL ENHANCE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF TS SOULIK FROM 
48 THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MADE A MAJOR
SHIFT IN TRACK, CALLING FOR A MORE RAPID RECURVATURE
SCENARIO..
.(more info)

>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei 
   Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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