Friday, October 27, 2006

TS CIMARON (PAENG) heads for Bicol-Quezon... [Update #002]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 27 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 28 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #003
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
22W (PAENG) BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CIMARON...ACCELE-
RATING WESTWARD CLOSER TO BICOL & QUEZON PROVINCES
.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL REGION, SAMAR AND QUEZON
PROVINCES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM CIMARON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to slow its WNW
track and intensify for the next 24 to 48 hours due to
favorable environment along its path. The center is fore-
cast to reach near-typhoon strength (110 km/hr) while pa-
ssing to the north of Bicol Region by Sunday morning (Oct
29), with a distance of approximately 170 km NNE of Naga
City around 11 AM. The 3 to 5-day (Oct 30-Nov 1) Long
Range Forecast shows CIMARON making landfall just to the
south of Baler, Aurora or over the Southern Sierra Madre
Mountains by midnight of Monday (Oct 29) and shall weaken
as it crosses Central Luzon passing over the provinces Au-
rora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac & Pangasinan. The center shall
be over the west coast of Pangasinan or over the South
China Sea around 2 PM Monday Oct 30 & shall weaken over
the South China Sea due to poor atmospheric environment.
Watch for more forecast outlook every 6 hours, as its
track may change later


+ EFFECTS: The system's outer bands is expected to arrive
over the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces sometime tomorrow.
Please take all necessary precautions and start boarding
up as this system may cause considerable damage to its
projected path
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeas-
terly Windflow embedded within a weak tropical disturbance
(LPA) will continue to bring widespread rains and winds
across Northern Luzon.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.9º N...LONGITUDE 130.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 665 KM (360 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 725 KM (390 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 3: 785 KM (425 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 4: 1,020 KM (550 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 260 KM (140 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST FRI OCTOBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 -
 CATANDUANES.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCT: 13.4N 128.7E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCT: 14.2N 126.6E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCT: 15.3N 123.0E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.8N 130.9E.
^TS CIMARON (22W) IS TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PE-
RIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF
TAIWAN. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM IN-
TENSITY JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AROUND 
60 HOURS..
.(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 13.0N 130.7E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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