Sunday, October 29, 2006

CIMARON (PAENG) nears Super Typhoon status..aims for Isabela...[Update #005]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON CIMARON (PAENG) RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS NOW
A MOUNTROUS 220-KM/HR CATEGORY 4 HOWLER...AIMS FOR
ISABELA AND WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON TONIGHT & TOMORROW.

...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 33-KM. ROUND EYE
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON AREA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS
TYPHOON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to continue mo-
ving WNW for the next 24 hours and is expected to make
landfall along Palanan Bay, Isabela around 12 MN Monday.
This system is forecast to turn cross Northern Luzon
tomorrow morning (Mon Oct 30). The 3 to 5-day (Nov 1-3)
long-range forecast shows CIMARON over the South China
Sea moving on a WSW path, weakening and shall make its
2nd landfall along Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical
Storm by Friday morning, Nov 3


+ EFFECTS: The system's western outer bands continues to
cover the whole of Luzon from Cagayan down to Bicol Region.
Moderate winds with light to sometimes heavy rainfall can
be expected over the affected areas. Meanwhile, its inner
bands expected to arrive over Aurora and Isabela including
Quirino and Southern Cagayan before sunset. Increasing sea
swells and high waves shall prevail along the eastern
coasts of the Philippines as CIMARON continues to move
closer to Luzon. Please take all necessary precautions and
start boarding up as this system may cause considerable
damage along its projected forecast path. Coastal Storm
Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be ex-
pected near and to the north of where the center of Cimaron
makes landfall in Northern Luzon, Philippines tonight
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 225 KM (122 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 2: 310 KM (168 NM) NNE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 310 KM (168 NM) SE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY
DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) EAST OF BAGUIO CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ISABELA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 11 AM PST SUN OCTOBER 29
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Northern Aurora & Quirino.
#02 - Rest of Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Mt. Province, Benguet, 
      Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, Rest of Aurora, Polillo island 
      & Catanduanes.

#01
- Calayan Group of islands, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La 
      Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan,
      Quezon, Camarines provinces & Albay.

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 29 OCT: 16.7N 123.1E / 240-295 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 30 OCT: 17.4N 121.2E / 205-250 KPH / WEST @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.6N 117.9E / 165-205 KPH / WSW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.0N 124.6E.
^THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N 112E.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE SITUATED OVER TAIWAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
TY CIMARON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON NEAR 18 HOURS AS A 130-KNOT SYSTEM.
TY CIMARON WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTER-
ACTS WITH 3000-7000 FOOT MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHERN LUZON AND IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR 36 HOURS. AFTER-
WARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ORIENTED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
..
.(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.1N 124.3E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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