Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619]
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
____________
TYPHOON CIMARON (PAENG) RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS NOW
A MOUNTROUS 220-KM/HR CATEGORY 4 HOWLER...AIMS FOR
ISABELA AND WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
ISABELA AND WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON TONIGHT & TOMORROW.
...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 33-KM. ROUND EYE
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON AREA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS
TYPHOON.
...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 33-KM. ROUND EYE
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON AREA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS
TYPHOON.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to continue mo-
ving WNW for the next 24 hours and is expected to make
landfall along Palanan Bay, Isabela around 12 MN Monday.
This system is forecast to turn cross Northern Luzon
tomorrow morning (Mon Oct 30). The 3 to 5-day (Nov 1-3)
long-range forecast shows CIMARON over the South China
Sea moving on a WSW path, weakening and shall make its
2nd landfall along Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical
Storm by Friday morning, Nov 3.
+ EFFECTS: The system's western outer bands continues to
cover the whole of Luzon from Cagayan down to Bicol Region.
Moderate winds with light to sometimes heavy rainfall can
be expected over the affected areas. Meanwhile, its inner
bands expected to arrive over Aurora and Isabela including
Quirino and Southern Cagayan before sunset. Increasing sea
swells and high waves shall prevail along the eastern
coasts of the Philippines as CIMARON continues to move
closer to Luzon. Please take all necessary precautions and
start boarding up as this system may cause considerable
damage along its projected forecast path. Coastal Storm
Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be ex-
pected near and to the north of where the center of Cimaron
makes landfall in Northern Luzon, Philippines tonight.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 225 KM (122 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 2: 310 KM (168 NM) NNE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 310 KM (168 NM) SE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY
DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) EAST OF BAGUIO CITY
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ISABELA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 11 AM PST SUN OCTOBER 29
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Northern Aurora & Quirino.
#02 - Rest of Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Mt. Province, Benguet,
Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, Rest of Aurora, Polillo island
& Catanduanes.
#01 - Calayan Group of islands, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La
Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan,
Quezon, Camarines provinces & Albay.
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 29 OCT: 16.7N 123.1E / 240-295 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 30 OCT: 17.4N 121.2E / 205-250 KPH / WEST @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 31 OCT: 17.6N 117.9E / 165-205 KPH / WSW @ 11 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.0N 124.6E.
^THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N 112E.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE SITUATED OVER TAIWAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
TY CIMARON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON NEAR 18 HOURS AS A 130-KNOT SYSTEM.
TY CIMARON WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTER-
ACTS WITH 3000-7000 FOOT MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHERN LUZON AND IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR 36 HOURS. AFTER-
WARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ORIENTED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
...(more info)
>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}
Wild Ox. Name contributed by: Philippines
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.1N 124.3E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 175 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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