Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 15 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 16 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 16 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
____________
TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...NOW
LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-
LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to turn towards the NE with a more accelerating speed tonight. This
system shall weaken into a Tropical Storm early tomo-
rrow and become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow night
or early Tuesday morning (Oct 17).
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's southern outer bands affecting Bonin
Island...improving weather conditions can be expected
tonight until tomorrow.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Two Tropical Disturbances (LPAs)
continues to organize to the west of Guam and over Microne-
sia (along Pohnpei & Kosrae Islands). The first disturbance
(92W/1006 mb) was located about 1,240 km East of Bicol Re-
gion (13.2N 135.8E)...while the second disturbance (93W/
1006 mb) was located about km 1,455 km SE of Guam (8.4N
157.1E)...both systems have wind speeds of 30 km/hr and
moving Westward slowly. These disturbances will be moni-
tored closely for possible development into Tropical Cy-
clones within the next 2 to 3 days.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 15 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 29.7º N...LONGITUDE 143.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 580 KM (315 NM) NNE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 745 KM (402 NM) SSE OF TOKYO, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SUN OCTOBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCT: 31.7N 145.8E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 59 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.9N 152.3E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 OCT: 37.7N 160.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SUN OCTOBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCT: 31.7N 145.8E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 59 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.9N 152.3E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 OCT: 37.7N 160.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 65 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 29.0N 142.4E.
^The system is showing signs of beginning extratropical
transition with stratocumulus on the western quadrants
and a notch of drier air intruding into the southern
quadrants. TY Soulik is tracking north-northeastward
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
(str) centered north of Wake Island. The system is pa-
ssing the axis of the str and accelerating northeastward
into the midlatitude flow. A midlatitude trough approaching
from the west will interact with TY Soulik around 24 hours
therefore the system will complete extratropical transition
by 36 hours...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
Offline Status: Servers under migration to a new location..services will resume
October 16 or 17 (Monday or Tuesday). Sorry for the inconvenience.
____________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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