Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 13 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
____________
TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) ALMOST STATIONARY AS IT BECOMES A
CATEGORY 2 SYSTEM WITH 165-KM/HR WINDS...IWO JIMA &
BONIN ISLANDS TO EXPERIENCE TYPHOON CONDITIONS FOR
36 HOURS.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND SOUTHEASTERN JAPAN
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SOULIK.
CATEGORY 2 SYSTEM WITH 165-KM/HR WINDS...IWO JIMA &
BONIN ISLANDS TO EXPERIENCE TYPHOON CONDITIONS FOR
36 HOURS.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND SOUTHEASTERN JAPAN
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SOULIK.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to continue drif-
ting very slowly Northward for the next 24 hours & shall
start to slowly accelerate towards the NNE within the 36
to 48 hours, becoming a 205-km/hr Category 4 Typhoon by
then. The eye closest approach to Iwo Jima shall be
around midnight of Sunday, Oct 15. The 3 to 4-day long-
range forecast (Oct 16-17) shows SOULIK rapidly accele-
rating towards the NE early next week and rapidly weake-
ning as it starts transitioning into an Extratropical
Cyclone. This forecast outlook continues to suggest a 10
to 20% threat to Southeastern Japan as it shall remain
over the open waters of the NW Pacific until the time
it becomes Extratropical.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's northern Eyewall now affecting Iwo
Jima, with typhoon conditions prevailing (strong NE'ly
winds of more than 100 km/hr and heavy rains). Typhoon
conditions shall continue to prevail over Iwo Jima for
the next 36 to 48 hours due to the very slow movement
of Soulik. Meanwhile, Bonin Island is under the typhoon's
inner bands. Strong winds of not more than 100 km/hr
with moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves
will continue to prevail for the next 2 to 3 days along
Iwo Jima and nearby islands.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Westerly & Southwesterly
windflow enhanced by SOULIK continues to bring cloudy
skies with rainshowers & thunderstorms across the
Marianas.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 13 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.9º N...LONGITUDE 141.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 105 KM (56 NM) SSW OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,340 KM (725 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: EAST @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA-BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST FRI OCTOBER 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCT: 24.1N 140.9E / 185-230 KPH / NNW @ 04 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 24.4N 140.7E / 195-240 KPH / NNW @ 04 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCT: 27.4N 142.2E / 185-230 KPH / NNE @ 24 KPH
DISTANCE 3: 1,990 KM (1,075 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: EAST @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA-BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST FRI OCTOBER 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCT: 24.1N 140.9E / 185-230 KPH / NNW @ 04 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCT: 24.4N 140.7E / 195-240 KPH / NNW @ 04 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCT: 27.4N 142.2E / 185-230 KPH / NNE @ 24 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCTOBER POSITION: 23.8N 141.0E.
^Over the past 12 hours TY Soulik (21W) has maintained a
northwestward track as it continues to move into a compe-
ting steering environment. The subtropical ridge (str) to
the east of TY Soulik remains the primary steering influ-
ence, however as TY Soulik continues to move toward the
str to the west of the system, greater influence on the
western periphery of TY Soulik will slow the system through
36 hours. As a mid-latitude low pressure trough currently
located over eastern China continues to move eastward, the
str on the western periphery of TY Soulik will begin to
weaken, allowing the str on the eastern periphery to regain
its dominant influence on TY Soulik. In addition the trough
will induce a northward component to the track between 36
and 48 hours. Between 48 and 72 hours, TY Soulik will move
into the mid-latitude flow causing a track shift to the
northeast. TY Soulik is expected to begin extratropical
transition around 72 hours...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
Offline Status: Servers under migration to a new location..services will resume
October 16 or 17 (Monday or Tuesday). Sorry for the inconvenience.
____________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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