Saturday, October 28, 2006

Typhoon CIMARON (PAENG) heads for Northern Luzon...[Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 28 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 29 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #007
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
CIMARON (PAENG) BECOMES THE 12TH TYPHOON OF 2006...NOW
HEADING TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON..SERIOUSLY THREATENING
AURORA-ISABELA AREA...SPARES BICOL REGION & QUEZON.


...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL REGION, CENTRAL & NORTHERN
LUZON SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON
CIMARON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to continue mo-
ving WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify further,
reaching projected peak winds of 185 km/hr. The eye is
forecast to turn Westward in response of a building High
Pressure Area along Southern China-Taiwan area and shall
reach the eastern coast of Isabela-Aurora area tomorrow
evening and make landfall over Palanan Bay in Isabela
around 2 AM Monday, Oct 30...then the typhoon shall cross
the Northern Luzon provinces of Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain
Province, Kalinga, Apayao and exit back to sea via Abra &
Ilocos Sur area by around Monday afternoon, Oct 30. The
3 to 5-day (Oct 31-Nov 2) long-range forecast shows CIMA-
RON over the South China Sea moving on a WSW path, weake-
ning and shall be off the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded
Tropical Storm by Thursday, Nov 02


+ EFFECTS: The system's outer bands is now affecting the
Eastern Coastal areas of Bicol Region and Northern Samar.
Moderate winds with light to sometimes heavy rainfall can
be expected over the affected areas. Increasing sea swells
and high waves shall prevail along the eastern coasts of
the Philippines as CIMARON continues to move closer to Lu-
zon. Please take all necessary precautions and start boar-
ding up as this system may cause considerable damage along
its projected forecast path. Coastal Storm Surge flooding
of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large
and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to
the north of where the center of Cimaron makes landfall in
Northern Luzon, Philippines tomorrow evening
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 28 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.1º N...LONGITUDE 126.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 315 KM (170 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 420 KM (227 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 520 KM (280 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 4: 615 KM (332 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA-ISABELA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST SAT OCTOBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES.
#01
- CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ALBAY, SORSOGON, 
      NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, AURORA, QUIRINO, 
      ISABELA, SOUTHERN CAGAYAN & NORTHERN SAMAR
.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 OCT: 15.8N 125.4E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCT: 16.5N 123.7E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCT: 16.9N 120.8E / 150-185 KPH / WEST @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.9N 127.2E.
^A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF TAIWAN CONTINUES TO
STEER TY CIMARON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM
MAKES LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO 48 HOURS. THE STORM CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON, AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED RESUME TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AFTER REEMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN 48 AND 
72 HOURS...
.(more info)

>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}, meaning: Philippine 
   Wild Ox
Name contributed by: Philippines
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 14.9N 127.0E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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