Tuesday, October 03, 2006

TS 19W (NENENG) - Update #004


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM 19W [NENENG] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 03 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 03 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
19W (NENENG) STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...DRIFTING
WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF THE PHILIPPINE SEA...CENTER STILL HARD
TO LOCATE DUE TO ITS BROADNESS OF ITS CIRCULATION WHICH
IS STILL CONSOLIDATING...BUT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (UPPER LEVEL WINDS).

*PAGASA 10-min sustained winds remained at 85-km/hr...All
interests in Luzon, Batanes, Taiwan, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
& Southern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of
this storm.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 19W is expected to turn Northerly for
the next 2 days and strengthen into a 110-km/hr Tropical
Storm...The 3 to 5-day long-range forecasts (Oct 6-8)
shows the system accelerating and recurving towards the
NE in the direction of Southern Japan, becoming a Category
1 Typhoon by then, with sustained winds of 150 km/hr.
 

+ EFFECTS: 19W's large circulation continues to affect
Eastern Philippines...The Western Outer Bands of this storm
are currently spreading across the Bicol Region, Samar,
Leyte & Surigao Provinces & is now approaching Cagayan,
Isabela & Aurora Provinces. This will bring mostly cloudy
skies with light to moderate rainfall & winds of not more
than 50 km/hr today
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 129.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 600 KM (325 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 700 KM (380 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 925 KM (500 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA
DISTANCE 4: 840 KM (453 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 800 KM (430 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM HKT TUE OCTOBER 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#01 - CATANDUANES, NORTHERN AURORA, ISABELA & CAGAYAN.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCT: 15.1N 129.4E / 75-95 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCT: 16.1N 129.3E / 85-100 KPH / NORTH @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCT: 18.4N 130.1E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.2N 129.8E.
^TS 19W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A BROAD
MONSOON DEPRESSION LOCATED EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-
WARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH OF KYUSHU. BY 48 HOURS, A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND DRAW THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 15.1N 128.2E / NW @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 19W (NENENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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