Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) Update #009


for Tuesday, 15 July 2014 [2:53 PM PhT]


Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) has passed very close to the north of Northern Samar...maintains its strength as it proceeds towards Bicol...outer and inner rainbands are now dumping heavy rains across Bicol Region and Northern Samar. The potential landfall area of this storm shall be over Albay this afternoon (between 4-6PM).

Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Typhoon VERA (BEBENG) which crossed the Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Metro Manila on July 14, 1983.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Central Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern coastal areas should closely monitor the development of TY Rammasun (Glenda).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, AND SOUTHERN QUEZON:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced today until Wednesday morning...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more...and up to Typhoon Force Winds of more than 120 kph near the center of Rammasun. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, CAVITE, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES AND PANGASINAN:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced beginning today until Wednesday evening...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.


As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT.

Location: Over the westernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.8N 125.1E)
About: 65 km northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 160 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 200 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 90 kilometers from the center
Past Movement: West @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Bicol Region


TY Rammasun (Glenda) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...and shall turn more to the northwest by 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the typhoon will make landfall over Eastern Albay late this afternoon (approx. 4-6 PM)...and will cross Albay between 6 PM to 9 PM on its way to Ragay Gulf and Southern Quezon. Rammasun (Glenda) will be traversing Southern Quezon, Laguna, Batangas and Cavite by midnight through Wednesday morning and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Wednesday late afternoon. By Thursday before noon, the typhoon shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving across the South China Sea towards Southern China.

Rammasun will slightly weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours hours after traversing Southern Luzon land mass...and will regain strength by 48 hours as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas through 72 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph (Category 2 Typhoon) by Friday morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Crossing Southern Quezon...starts to weaken...about 45 km south-southeast of Metro Manila [8AM JUL 16: 14.1N 121.1E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Regains strength as it moves out the PAR...about 445 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [8AM JUL 17: 17.1N 116.3E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens further...while traversing the South China Sea...about 205 km east-southeast of Qionghai, China [8AM JUL 18: 18.8N 112.5E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Jul 15, 2014
Class/Name: TY Rammasun (Glenda)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 12.8º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 125 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 120 km E of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 160 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 225 km SE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 480 km ESE of Metro Manila
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
CPA [ETA] to Albay-Sorsogon: Tuesday Late Afternoon [between 4-6 PM PhT]









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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