Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) Update #008


for Thursday, 15 July 2014 [7:47 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014
Next Update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) continues to strengthen while still over the Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Bicol-Samar Area...threat to Bicol Region and Northern Samar increases. The potential landfall area of this storm shall be over Albay-Southern Camarines Sur this evening, July 15.

Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Typhoon VERA (BEBENG) which crossed the Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Metro Manila on July 14, 1983.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Central Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern coastal areas should closely monitor the development of TY Rammasun (Glenda).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, AND SOUTHERN QUEZON:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced beginning Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more...and up to Typhoon Force Winds of more than 120 kph near the center of Rammasun. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, CAVITE, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES AND PANGASINAN:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced beginning Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the west-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.8N 126.3E)
About: 185 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 285 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 200 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 90 kilometers from the center
Past Movement: West @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Bicol Region


TY Rammasun (Glenda) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...and will continue its track through 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, it shall turn more to the northwest. On the forecast track, the typhoon will enter the warm waters of the Albay Gulf Tuesday afternoon...making landfall over Northeastern Albay by Tuesday evening (approx. 7-9 PM)...and crossing the Southern part of Camarines Sur between 9 PM to 12 AM. Rammasun (Glenda) will be traversing Southern Quezon and Metro Manila Wednesday morning and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by early Wednesday evening. By Thursday afternoon, the typhoon shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving across the South China Sea towards Southern China.

Rammasun will maintain its strength during the next 24 hours...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm by 48 hours after traversing Bicol and Southern Luzon. It will then regain strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas through 72 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph (Category 2 Typhoon) by Friday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Crossing the Southern part of Quezon...starts to weaken...about 180 km southeast of Metro Manila [2AM JUL 16: 13.8N 122.5E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippine Sea...about 265 km northwest of Subic, Zambales [2AM JUL 17: 15.9N 118.1E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR...regains Typhoon intensity while traversing the South China Sea...about 525 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM JUL 18: 17.7N 114.0E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Jul 15, 2014
Class/Name: TY Rammasun (Glenda)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 12.8º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 235 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 250 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 285 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 345 km ESE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 605 km ESE of Metro Manila
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
CPA [ETA] to Albay-Sorsogon: Tuesday Everning [between 7-9 PM PhT]
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF












>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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